Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.153225 2.272629 2.401290 2.551407 2.723330 2.916096 3.151597
2025-04-27 2.057403 2.216703 2.396603 2.618315 2.889537 3.218445 3.661522
2025-05-04 1.962836 2.142811 2.352383 2.620513 2.964531 3.407816 4.056455
2025-05-11 1.890360 2.084732 2.316568 2.622319 3.030742 3.586356 4.467061
2025-05-18 1.804889 2.003334 2.243705 2.567108 3.011121 3.638901 4.696406
2025-05-25 1.750738 1.956018 2.208639 2.555722 3.046533 3.771111 5.083540
2025-06-01 1.701453 1.911369 2.173158 2.539347 3.070803 3.886975 5.474019
2025-06-08 1.656276 1.869242 2.137867 2.519507 3.086295 3.988878 5.870534
2025-06-15 1.632284 1.852594 2.134390 2.542606 3.167041 4.210715 6.616713
2025-06-22 1.572563 1.787244 2.062771 2.463816 3.081821 4.127659 6.605683
2025-06-29 1.544891 1.762549 2.044588 2.460746 3.115876 4.266083 7.235015
2025-07-06 1.501801 1.716100 1.994888 2.408598 3.065786 4.238167 7.385927
2025-07-13 1.486962 1.707574 1.998177 2.437297 3.155570 4.507158 8.695936
2025-07-20 1.483747 1.714127 2.022251 2.498468 3.307268 4.943880 11.348603
2025-07-27 1.462033 1.694784 2.008795 2.500500 3.354553 5.163670 13.634927
2025-08-03 1.441646 1.676445 1.995807 2.502135 3.400890 5.394744 17.030735
2025-08-10 1.407119 1.637717 1.952070 2.452175 3.345322 5.353388 17.969863
2025-08-17 1.386060 1.616925 1.933522 2.441857 3.364794 5.517896 22.683011
2025-08-24 1.364845 1.595297 1.912939 2.427009 3.373892 5.657642 29.737226
2025-08-31 1.343821 1.573369 1.891154 2.409004 3.374996 5.776110 41.738173
2025-09-07 1.334705 1.567687 1.892924 2.429965 3.456822 6.170891 625.174895
2025-09-14 1.300846 1.526601 1.841039 2.358385 3.340898 5.893468 113.953495
2025-09-21 1.286852 1.513156 1.829990 2.355590 3.369481 6.111093 NaN